Paul Allen from Ancestry.com has predicted that the number of users to enter Google+, Google’s much hyped social network, has reached 10 million users. He says that this amount could reach 20 million by the weekend, growing at an exponential rate. Tracking the amount of users has also become harder saying that ‘the userbase is growing so quickly that it is challenging for me to keep up, since the number of users of any given surname (even the rare ones I am tracking) seems to be climbing every day.’
Allen used a surname analysis based on the top 100-200 surnames (based on usage) from the US Census Bureau, then estimated how many US users they were then compared it to the worldwide usage. He selected a ratio of ‘1 US user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users.’ He believes that the model he is using to predict the data is sound and compared his methods to what could be used in a low-budget census.
A report is expected to come out next Monday with more information available from Allen’s Google+1 post. So far, Google has not released any actual numbers to act as a comparison.